With all the chaos of the market over the past few days I decided to take a step back for a moment. Sometimes it is best to not get caught up in the news and realize that the positions you hold will work out in the future. Had the end of the world really came I would have likely been in hot water, but that is the case for everyone, so at least I wouldn’t have been the only one on the sinking ship. All that I can take from the past few days and the market action, is things aren’t over until they are over. That may sound extremely cliche, but just look at the markets over the past few days. Yeah see what I am saying now. The greatest thing about my previous statement is that when it comes to the financial markets, the game is never over. We all will live to fight another day (as long as we take steps to maintain our capital) and hopefully that new day will be better than the next. Just remember last year with the Greece mess, everyone thought the double dip was back, and look at the first quarter 2012, extraordinary. I thought the video from last weekends Kentucky Derby would be a good morning inspiration. Take a watch below and remember that it is not over till it is over.
One of the virtues of youth is having a memory that does not falter. Luckily for me, I am young, and pay attention handsomely. I do recall a time, in the distant past, when Zillow was a DOG. This prime candidate for internet success was scorned upon far and wide, and we look at it today, in a new light. Today Zillow is adorned and cherished, while not months ago it was the scum of the earth. Congrats to those who succeeded in the trade, I am not only jealous, but wish I had not been bucked by the negative price move. Now that being said, lets take a look at this new king of the internet space to see whats next for the new internet based tech companies.
The story of Zillow was one shrouded in implausibility. Many asked, how could a company with just an internet site make money? How would they drive users to their site in the depressed housing market? Well it seems that all the critics were put in there place. What one should really take from this is that a few months ago Zillow was not making any money. They were looked at as a joke of a company, with a horrible algorithm for calculating home prices. No one believed in the story, and those who did have just recently profited handsomely.
Yelp and Zynga(to name a few), many are currently questioning there potential. Laughably some are suggesting that these companies are worth half what they are trading at now. The truth on the other hand is obvious. Zillow, the dog of last year, turned their user growth into earnings, just as these companies will do. Last year Zillow was losing money and they turned it around. Just like many of these other technology companies will do. How you must know, how will these new technology companies turn the story around? Simple, traffic equals earnings. The tech bubble of lore is gone. Technology companies can monetize users today, very handsomely at that. The new tech companies will do that, making there shareholders a killing in the process.
One of the oldest traditions of southerners in America, is the one of shooting firearms. I like to take advantage of this right on my weekends, so I see it fitting to take a look at Smith & Wesson for this installment of Sunday Funday. It seems in this time of uncertainty more and more Americans are taking advantage of their right to bear arms. From the looks of it Smith & Wesson will likely benefit. What separates S&W from the competition is not just the quality of there merchandise, but one specific line of handguns. For those not familiar with the handgun market there is a large demand for small, accurate, and easy to use conceal carry class of handguns. S&W has found the perfect mix of firearm essentials in its line of Bodyguard handguns. The Bodyguard 360 has been sold out in many a retail locations and the demand remains high.
I am not uneducated enough to suggest that one product will change the game for a company. What the above bodyguard example lends itself to suggest is that S&W is doing something right, very right. The demand for firearms is high and the choices are various, which in turn means creating a product that sells off the shelves is quite difficult. S&W has created a product that appeases the masses and it will continue to make one of kind products. Looking below at their share price, they are obviously doing something right. So in the spirit of Sunday Funday, let’s go shooting.
What is Sunday Funday?
Photo by Avicennasis3000
With the gut wrenching trading of Friday, one must wonder what is next for our lovely stock market. As those that were somewhat awake last year remember, the picture of Americas debt situation is far from being a classic, written off to ancient times. If American was a homeowner it would have had its house repossessed many times over. As the sky seems to fall out from under us (which may be overstated, next week will clarify), one must look to the next storm on the horizon. Being that it is a election year, things can get dirty, real muddy. My post this Saturday is short, succinct, and hopefully gut wrenching. Americas debt situation is more than horrendous, and this ball is the next one to drop, by no means in a celebratory manner. So hopefully those that hold the power will realize that if we don’t start paying our debts now, our children and there children will have to. The debt problem is a crisis that will result in no one being able to survive america.
“The time repair the roof is when the sun is shining.” – John F. Kennedy
For your listening pleasure:
For clarification purposes:
Yeah today is bad, not end of the world bad, but bad. In particular for us who love tech, more specifically those companies with high p/e ratios and not much on the earnings front. The end of the world is not here and another day will come, another day will come to trade. Yes the bears are prevailing today, and those holding their VXX bull gun are laughing as they sip the finest wines on this spring afternoon. Though I have been a holder of the VXX and things can turn on a dime. I sit here to suggest, rather, to clarify, that all is not lost. Everything from Zynga to Apple to General Electric are not having a good day. As a holder of technology companies, when I see Apple get murdered, it makes me sleep easy. As I have suggested in the past, the best companies will prevail into the future. I can sit here with a smile as I lose money knowing that the storm will cease.
The end of the world has not come yet. I am a Macrohead and yes things are not great. Though was this not to be expected? The numbers are out and we will now have to live with them. That is all beside the point, what matter now, is owning the best. The best companies with the brightest futures will survive. Trim that fat. Even as bad as 2011 was at its point of craziness, the best of breed still prevailed. Last year as the market was getting obliterated Apple hung in there strong. This is no cry to buy Apple. This is rather a suggestion that if the fundamentals exist, over the long haul one shall prevail. This storm of the market will pass. For there to be good days there must also be bad, so as a trader or investor you must take both and manipulate the market to your advantage.
Photo by Webb Zahn