Today Will Go Down In History

You have heard enough advise suggesting what tomorrow will bring, only the tape will tell the true story of Facebook. Whichever way tomorrow trades, up or down, the movie below will get you excited about the day that will go down in history.


Posted on by Young Gun in Uncategorized Comments Off on Today Will Go Down In History

Playing Chicken

The market has turned into a giant game of chicken. I sit and watch the stream of news and ticker prices, wondering who will buck first, the bulls or the bears. On the bull side, I see a group that has the support of the recovering economy of the United States. On the bear side, they sit hoping that Greece falls apart bringing the European Union down with it. Let us take a deeper look into both sides of the argument to see who will prevail in the heated game of chicken.

Looking at the bull side of the argument, we see a lot that was not here a year ago. Economic news has gotten substantially better. One still sits and questions the employment data, knowing that the numbers are not as good as the 8.1% suggests, at the same time, the number is far from the teens. Whichever barometer one looks at the y/y numbers, the data has improved substantially, enough to look past a double dip. The good data has slightly fallen off in the last few months, don’t get me wrong, but that is par for the course. One can look at the U.S. economic picture, the company earnings, and look towards the end of the year and see that a double dip is nowhere near part of the game plan. The bull case, or the case in which the world does not end, seems to hold some merit into the last half of the year.

Taking a long hard look at the bear side, a group that I have been part of for a majority of the rally into the first half of 2012, one can be left wondering. Wondering what exactly the consequences are of the Euro mess, what exactly can go wrong in China, and how low the market can go? The Europe mess has legs, no question. If things fall apart across the pond, it will likely not be a good year for anyone. Though, what are the real chances of things falling apart? If the European Union wanted Greece out, wouldn’t they have pulled the plug some time ago? The truth seems apparent, the European Union will attempt to stick together, whatever it takes. They may end up kicking Greece out at some point, whatever the E.U. chooses, it will be to preserve a strong European Union. China and the BRIC countries have seen slowing growth as of late, but the hard landing suggested some time ago, has recently lost merit. The bear has had some good support as of late, but U.S. growth, earnings, and balance sheets suggest a healthy business environment for U.S. equity markets.

Obviously there are many more facts that I failed to cover in the short post. One thing remains true no matter what facts are presented, the bull side looks strong. It may take some magic to make new highs, but the end of the world is far from here. The markets have been fooled before, and they may not be the sharpest around, but they won’t get fooled this time. I sat hoping and praying for the European mess to fall apart at the beginning of the year, it didn’t happen. It didn’t happen this year, last year, and the times before that. I suggest one quits hoping and praying for the end and looks at the facts. With or without Greece the E.U. will come back stronger, the recession in Europe will linger, but the recovery will not double dip here in the states.

Posted on by Young Gun in Uncategorized Comments Off on Playing Chicken

Some People Just Don’t Get Technology

I was sitting at having coffee with my old man yesterday morning, talking shop. We were talking technology companies, and he said something that baffled me, “It feels like the tech bubble all over again.” Initially I was quite baffled. What he said was contrary to all my beliefs and current stock holdings, then it hit me, he didn’t get it. It was that simple, he merely did not understand the current market situation for technology companies. I wont go as far to say my fathers a dinosaur or lacks investing intelligence, he just doesn’t think about tech companies the way I do, the way investors should in the current market.

It hit me, like a ton of bricks, and made perfect sense. A majority of investors are so worried about their past mistakes they can’t see the future right in front of them. So many long term investors are fearful of the chaos the tech bubble of the 90’s wreaked on their portfolios, how they were fooled into thinking that companies had potential when they did not. Today, many of those investors are still around, and they watch the market with blinders on. These individuals fail to realize the growth potential of a technology company compared to the ig box store, the growth potential in mobile, the future of the worlds technology needs. No longer are companies coming to market that don’t offer services, revenues, or users. The technology companies of today are part of our daily life. The younger generations no longer check the paper for the news, rather log into their twitter from their smartphone. The dinosaurs of the investing world will be missing the growth potential and great returns in the coming months.

I constantly hear that the first day of Facebook will likely be huge, but after that the day of reckoning will come. Why is Facebook destined to trade down? I am not suggesting that the stock will trade in one direction, it’s a market, stocks trade both directions. To suggest that the peak of Facebook’s stock price and return to investors will be the first day is just ridiculous. This could be the year of tech, or the decade of tech for that matter. The growth potential is huge, the monetization will come, and the returns for investors will be obvious.

Posted on by Young Gun in Uncategorized 5 Comments

Repetition Breeds Familiarity

Well to get to the point, everything has fallen apart once again. This time around, in year 2012, the market doesn’t really care. Yeah we are down a little off the highs, but if the market had really cared it would not have rallied the bears away for the first 4 months of the year. Had Greece really and the Euro really been an issue, it would have never left us at the beginning of the year. The world has far from fallen apart, the VIX has barely moved. The masses, rightly so, are convinced that the United States economy is better. Things are better than they were and we are likely not going to have a double dip recession. The irony of the whole situation lays in the fact that we, the big ole United States, will be able to stand on our own. We are just a giant nation of consumers, our service economy will prevail, because we merely make money off of serving one another. The restaurants will continue to make food, nail places will continue to paint nails and so on. Technology will continue to service the masses and be the place to make monies. If liquidity freezes up again, does it really matter? It’s obvious that people aren’t buying homes anyways. So the point of my ramblings are simple: we have seen the Greece mess many times before and at this stage in the recovery Uncle Sam will stand fine alone. Even if Greece falls apart Americans will keep doing what they have done for years and likely spend more money. Yes the rest of the world falling apart will slightly hinder our bright future, but it will far from destroy it.


Posted on by Young Gun in Uncategorized 5 Comments

Sunday Funday: Mother’s Day

I usually like to use Sunday Funday as a way to highlight a stock that may not be on every investors radar. This Sunday I am going to switch it up, and rather, make a suggestion for the time you would spend researching said stock. I suggest taking that time you would spend slaving away in front of the computer and use it towards family time. We all work very hard to achieve financial success. On Sundays like this, one must step back and realize why we desire that financial success. We desire this financial success so that we can support those around us, so that we can spend less time working and more time with our family. It may sound cliche, but take a moment to spend some time with family today. I am taking a break from my research to do the same, because at the end of the day family is all you have.

What is Sunday Funday?

Photo by mRio

Posted on by Young Gun in Sunday Funday Comments Off on Sunday Funday: Mother’s Day