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American Home Buyers Are Smarter Than You Think

As of late there has been a lot of concern about the current American housing situation. Proponents of the recovery are claiming that it will take time for the housing recovery to get revved up (yes things always turn around if you give it enough time), while opponents of the housing recovery are suggesting that the recovery is nonexistent. I happen to fall into the later category for one simple reason; American’s may be lazy and fat, but they are not stupid when it comes to big purchases.

When an individual or couple plans to buy a home, they do not go out on a whim one Saturday and make that purchase. The purchase, no matter what tax bracket, is calculated and well thought out. Though the individual home buyer may not be as knowledgeable as the experts in the housing field, they spend a lot of time considering a home purchase (6 months to a year), then say a burrito for lunch. This suggests that home buyers have been watching the declining home prices for quite some time. Why would a home buyer sell their home to buy another home if they are going to lose money? Why would a new couple put their life savings on the line to purchase a home if it was only going to lose value? Why would investors purchase homes if they were going to lose capital? No matter how the cake is cut, no one is rushing out to purchase homes until we see a reversal in this dire trend.

Another subject that deserves being touched on when discussing the lack of a housing recovery, is the businesses affected by the housing industry. No I am not speaking of Home Depot or Lowe’s. I am speaking about everything from Best Buy to Pier 1. When consumers purchase a new home, or new to them, they usually have more space to fill. How do Americans fill their empty spaces? They buy, buy, and buy more and more stuff. So until we see a huge push of Americans buying homes, don’t expect every industry in the United States to do stellar. There is a clear relationship between big business and the housing industry that has been prevalent for 80 years and no matter how bad investors want financial markets to shove off this relationship, the relationship remains steadfast.

Posted on by Young Gun in Uncategorized 7 Comments

Why Zynga’s Purchase Was The Best Move

With Zynga’s recent purchase of OMGPOP, many investors were left wondering, was that the right choice? My first reaction when I saw the price tag, was disappointment, I expected more of Zynga. After a long and challenging soul searching episode, I realized that Zynga had not made a bad choice, but rather, the perfect choice.

We have all heard of Words With Friends and as of late, have most likely have started hearing about Draw Something. The games are similar, but in fact worlds apart. Words With Friends appeals in a particular to an audience of some education and basic word skills, while Draw Something does not. Does this warrant 4 times the price tag? Why yes it does, when you appeal to the broader masses, you will in fact sell more applications. A 10 year old cannot competently compete with their parents in Words With Friends, but Draw Something everyone can enjoy. If everyone from a five year old to 80 year old grandma and grandpa will use the application, then it is well worth the price tag.

What is even more significant about the recent OMGPOP purchase is the new potential for the application. Draw Something is currently mediocre at best, but has a lot of potential with the app skills of Zynga behind it. Zynga has made many a games into an masterpiece that’s easy to use and will do so again with Draw Something. Draw Something has room to grow and Zynga is the perfect environment for that. With that being said we should also look for the combination of Zynga and OMGPOP to bring out another masterpiece in the coming year. That’s at least what Mark Pincus is expecting by throwing $200 million at the company.

This is by no means a recommendation to buy the stock. There may be other headwinds in the foreceable future that outweigh the recent benefit of OMGPOP, for that information please refer to Zynga Scares Me.

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Chipotle Is Getting Too Big For It’s Britches

What would you like on that, the polite Chipotle burrito engineer asks me? Well isn’t the answer obvious, everything that looks good. That may be the precise problem with Chipotle today. A customer peering through the glass protecting the precious ingredients to a perfect burrito doesn’t follow the calorie counter, but rather ones taste buds. In a time when Americans have gotten larger and larger, we have, and will see a trend towards smaller and smaller calorie counts.

It is obvious that Americans love to eat and in particular like to eat Chipotle. The issue resides in the coming years. We are not seeing a fad, but rather a societal change; A massive move towards a healthier and fitter america. We have seen this movement take shape in some major fast food companies. Take a look at McDonalds, a few years ago people would have thought fruit instead of french fries was ridiculous; today not having the fruit option is an absurdity. It is likely that the Chipotle business will need to follow health trend, or those same store sales will be dealt a heavy blow. Chipotle is a great company, but in the ever changing landscape of the American consumer, Chipotle must transition to serve the health conscious American consumer.

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The U.S. Recovery Cannot Stand Alone

Recent chatter among the professionals suggests that the United States can stand alone, with no regard for the faltering global economies. Did I miss some recent regression back to the 18th century? These very intelligent men and women are suggesting that the world we live in today resembles the protectionism of the ancient past, rather then the connectivity of the current era. Maybe I am just oblivious to this new world, but much more likely I am right and those pros are just trying to sucker you into the market.

Since the masses want to ignore the connectivity of 2011, and the free lessons one can learn from last year, they shall suffer. Last year was a prime example of the global impact on financial markets. The fear of economic problems throughout the world took the wind out of last years rally. But now the global world and the United States are no longer connected? Come on, don’t play dumb with me, this interpretation is not only ignorant, it is foolish for your money. The global fast paced world we live in today is connected in all shapes and forms. Keep an eye on our friends around the globe, because the worse things get, the U.S. financial markets will realize they cannot stand on their own.

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March Madness: Molson Coors vs. Buffalo Wild Wings

While watching the Basketball games, a good sports fan is expected to have a chicken wing in one hand and an ice cold beer in the other. Who better to represent those necessities than Molson Coors and Buffalo Wild Wings. Sports is a key industry for both adult beverage companies and sports bars, and a lot of money is made during the March mayhem. In the theme of March madness lets put two top scorers together and see who comes out ahead.

First Half

Let’s take a look at how these companies have performed over the past year to see who takes the lead in the opening half.

Molson Coors recently announced the launching of its iced T Coors Light. The CEO of the company suggests that this hybrid drink is exactly what the consumers want. They want to take their two favorite beverages and combine them. If it were this easy Coca-Cola would have a never ending supply of new drinks. There are a few issues with this so called growth engine. First off the sweet tea alcohol arena is a extremely crowded space. Second, those most likely to buy the hybrid product are in the demographics that would prefer sweet tea (instead of iced tea). This growth engine turns out to be more of a big question for investors rather then a growth engine.As obvious through the above images, Buffalo wild wings seems to have outperformed Molson Coors and the broader market over the past year. What may be more significant to investors is the strong uptrend seen over the last year in BWLD. It looks as though the wings have outperformed the beer over the past year, but that may just mean Molson Coors is preparing to pop. We’ll take a look at that come the second half (below)

Second Half

Taking a quick look at Buffalo Wild Winds, they have something that many restaurants before them have failed to grasp. BWLD has got the formula for success. This success can be seen through their numbers and in their stores. The Buffalo Wild Wings experience is a different sports bar experience. One cannot quite place their figure on what exactly makes them stand out, but whatever it is, myself and many other Americans can’t stop spending money there. Nor is BWLD a trend by any sense, Americans have loved beer and wings in the past and will continue to do so into the future.

Final Score

There is no buzzer beater here. Buffalo Wild Wings comes out the strong leader. One cannot argue with their growth potential. There is just something about those BWLD that myself and many others just can’t get enough off. They have figured out the formula for success and will continue to use it.
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