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Where Is The Market Going? And Is This Even The Right Question To Ask?

We all wonder, day in and day out, where is the market going? This is the million dollar question that can land you, me, and the rest of the family a much richer and luxurious lifestyle. The quick answer to this is the market looks to trade sideways for quite sometime, until the global economics concerns are resolved. But maybe questioning the market is not the appropriate question to ask. Maybe this is the question that is costing us the money we think we could gain by asking the question. Maybe the more appropriate question is: Which stocks will be higher by the end of 2012? The saying goes, miss the forest for the trees, but the fact of the matter is that when it comes to investing, the trees make us rich and we could care less if the forest went up in flames.

So as the market dynamics have changed, so should your investing strategy. It is likely that you invest in the best of breed in many sectors. The reality of the situation is that the leaders are changing, and new ones will emerge (I am currently in the process of evaluating that). Broad markets moves are cashed out for the moment, with the renewed global economic concerns, and if these worries come continue to rise, the market will trade down. So take some time over the weekend and realize what the trends of the future are. Is social media the leader of 2012, or will it fall off, are the automakers set to make record profits, or will the IPO babies of the year give us a once and a lifetime return? Rather then questioning where the market is headed, one should question which are the stocks that will trend higher over the rest of the year?

Please feel free to comment some of the companies that you think will take 2012 by storm. The best investing occurs when ideas are shared.

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Apple, You Have Grown So Much Without Your Father

With all the talk yesterday morning on CNBC (thankfully without Cramer) about Warren Buffett and his illness. It reminds me of a time when Steve Jobs was headlining the news and investor concerns about Apple ran rampant. We all know that Steve Jobs was an innovator, one of a kind, a revolutionary. The same can be said about Warren Buffett in his own right, for he has impacted the investing world tremendously. This lends me to wonder, after a great company like Apple or Berkshire Hathaway looses its icon, how should the share price react?

We have seen a tremendous run as of late in Apple. Is the huge Apple run warranted? I have been listening to the arguments for months about valuation and potential in the stock. I see the bull case, but I wonder about the bear case. When a company loses its visionary, should it be on a tear? Does the concern about the unknown, the losing of an icon, relate to lower value when the visionary is alive, to only rally after his or her loss? This is obvious through the massive move in the Apple equity. Though people that talk of Berkshire Hathaway claim that the company would never be the same without Buffett. This leaves me wondering, how important is an icon? To be honest I don’t know the answer. I usually have some devious conclusion that gives me an edge on the market, but in this case I would have expected the exact opposite reaction of the Apple stock with the loss of its father. Only time will give us the answer we seek. In the coming year one should watch the equity to see if the initial enthusiasm was overstated, because CEO’s can be replaced, visionaries cannot.
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Politicians Vote For Themselves, Do Traders?

Just because you have a pulpit doesn’t mean you are qualified, or for that matter knowledgeable. With the advent of Stocktwits and twiter it is now so easy to plug your stock a caveman can do it. Well that may have been a bit corny but the facts still remain, everyone who has an opinion, no matter who, can share it. Now even the uneducated and ignorant can pass as brilliant. The best of us know that real decisions are calculated and precise and come from a variety of sources. The best trades are made when listening to those who may know more then you rather then those who speak the loudest. Taken at surface value this new voice of the masses can have more cons then pros, but if you break down others opinions, you can get the most out of the social media to boost your trading accounts.

One can see how someones articles or comments align with their holdings very easily, just look at my past articles. When I was very bearish on the market I was a huge supporter of the VIX; in more recent times I am very bullish on social media, just look at my chatter about RENN. What I strive to do when I post articles and opinions, is back this up with some facts. If I am not taking a look at the graphs, I am looking at the basics of the business. What many in the sphere of social media do is neither, and as someone like yourself, obviously trying to be a better trade, you must separate the crap from the knowledge.

My point is simple: consciously or subconsciously everyone in the social media finance world seeks to praise their own positions. Before you let yourself or any of your buddies go running in like a chicken with your head cut off, evaluate. Take a look at what this person has to say currently, see where their opinions come from, look at there past performance. Evaluate what they have to say, never, never, take things at face value. There is always more to the story, and it is your job as a trader to look deeper into that story, before realizing if what is being said should be relished or taken as chatter. More times then not traders are telling you to jump in head first, saying the pool is 10 feet deep and in fact its only 3.

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Social Media Isn’t Hot, It’s On Fire

If you have followed my tweets today, you have seen my obvious bullish sentiments of RENN. I hate to break it to those who read my post from yesterday about me preparing to fire my VXX bull gun, but I changed my mind. I pulled a complete reversal on sentiment. This is obvious by the massive amount of monies headed into social media. As I stated in an article a few weekends back, you Cant Fight Where The Money Is Going. Just take a look at the volume on RENN, its mind-blowing. Looking back to last summer, the last time enthusiasm was really behind this stock, it doubled in a week. Below is that graph.

With the recent revisited enthusiasm, I am putting my money to work. I believe we are far from being done with this movement. Tech is hot and social media is on fire. I believe that the stock is not even overextended and I have not even heard any bearish sentiments on it. If you have them I am more than willing to hear them, but it looks to me like your bearish sentiments will be crushed. Supposedly the short percentage is high, I am in and waiting to see how that plays out for the bulls on social media. 

Shoutout to Ragin’ Cajun at ibankcoin.com for making the call last night
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Why I Love Nike

There are many reasons I love Nike. From both a consumer side and an investor side. Yes some competition exist, but at the end of the day the company never fails to innovate. Below is a different take on advertising by Nike. It has over 1 million hits in 2 days. Watch and feel inspired.

 

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