No the company itself does not strike fear in my heart, rather the potential extreme volatility of the stock in the near future. As we have seen with these recent IPOs of tech companies, they initially release a small float, only later to release more shares. This just so happens to flood the market of shares, creating a bit of discomfort for those who believe in the long term potential of said firm. To put things in perspective take a look below when Fusion-io realized shares in mid December.

As the large black arrow indicates, this was a point in which more shares were made available. What is significant is not only the fact that the company began trending down before the second offering, but the downtrend that continued throughout the proceeding month. No matter how bullish an investor is on a company , to take an almost 30% haircut is uncomfortable. Fusion has recently trended back to the level it has fallen from, though it has taken about three months.

Those who are bullish on Zynga, social media, Facebook and so on know that Zynga has a lot of upside potential. With their continued success in the app world and on Facebook one does not need to question their future dominance. Rather as an informed investor, one must consider the detrimental effects that an oversupply of shares will have on the market. As a recently IPOed company, Fusion supports the case that one should stay away until the shares have comfortably made themselves into the market. Knowing that Facebook’s public offering will create a buzz in social media stocks, and the price of those related to it will skyrocket; Why buy Zynga at $13 when you can get it at $9.

“Not having a clear goal leads to death by a thousand compromises.” – Mark Pincus (Co-founder of Zynga)

Greece has slipped its way out of the headlines in the recent days. the indices touch new highs and everything seems just fine. Investors are convinced that things are substantially better in the United States. I have lost quite a bit of capital fighting the trend and will wait for a better moment to strike a bearish stance once again. For the meantime though, with all the talk of a better economy and a “fixed” Greece, are their not lessons to take from their trials and tribulations?

No matter which political party you root for, their is an obvious spending problem throughout our government. These spending issues have plagued politics since the great depression and the New Deal. In the past we muddled through, but it seems now our debt burdens will way down on us. the fact of the matter is, it is just to large. Many invest in America because it is merely the best of the worst. Is the way we have it today, the way in which we should leave it for generations to come? The government obviously needs to get its balance sheet in order, just as have many Americans over the past few years.

This leads me to my point, and a very important one at that. With the United States government continually adding more debt to its balance sheet what should hinder Americans from doing the same? We have seen the Greeks wipe away debt and we have seen our neighbors do the same. The precedent set by everyone from the governments to your neighbor have implied that their is no responsibly for your debt. When will this catch up with us and in what shape and form? One can make an argument that student debt is the next bubble, but that is just a theory to be tackled another day. The fact of the matter is buying things on credit, that you can not afford is not good in any shape or form. Americans still have not learned to hinder their spending to realistic terms and will refuse to do so until their government does the same. So dear mother American, get your fiscal house in order.

If you do not understand our current debt predicament please refer to: U.S. National Debt A Bigger And Bigger Concern

Photo by Images_of_Money

With all the money currently be printed and the more quantitative easing down the pipeline; Is now the time to buy? This is the question of the year. Buying today suggests that one may miss a historic run in equities while waiting suggests that there will be a better buying opportunity in the future. I happen to stand in the camp that better opportunities come to those who wait. Below is the S&P over the calendar year 2011. Yes, it did go down (even more then 1%).

My market analysis is not based on the mere fact that the financial markets will be facing many headwinds in the coming months, but rather the fact that markets do go down. No matter how much money is pumped into the system markets can, do, and want to go down. Take a look at last Tuesday. The markets went down hard and fast. This was a foreshadow of how things will happen when sentiment changes. It will happen before many investors are out of bed, and will hit hard and fast. Last year has been forgotten, thrown in the basement swept under the rug, and this will cost many their shirts.

The experts are suggesting that this moment, right now, is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Retail investors are eating it up and instead should be running for the hills. Thinks are arguably better in the United States, though they are not good. That is the key point that many investors are missing; For this to be a historic moment things would need to be good, not mediocre. I am not going to run through all the coming headwinds, you read, you are informed. What has more significance is the fact that things are not perfect and the market is acting as if the world has no flaws, it does, and those flaws are bigger then meets the eye.

So make your money and do it quickly because when things collapse, which they will, it will once again not be a pretty picture. So to summarize for those that missed my point, a better buying opportunity will present itself in the future, just ask 2008, July of 2011, and sometime in 2012.

“For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Isaac Newton

With all the talk of higher fuel prices and the pain it will instill on consumers, the avid investor knows to look at his (or her) portfolio and see where they will be most exposed. In the past one of the first places consumers cut back was on their daily addiction, coffee. Fads and consumer buying habits change over time. Has Starbucks become a consumer staple, that the masses cannot live without?

Years back when the consumers wallets were first hindered by increasing gas prices experts were saying coffee was the first discretionary item to go. Today coffee seems less and less of a discretionary item and more and more of a American addiction. Americans are addicted to their televisions, entertainment, and so on; Today it seems that coffee (in particular from Starbucks) falls into that category of need. We all know that Americans have a tainted line between the need category and the want category. Today more and more Americans see their Starbucks fix as a need that they can’t live without, even if it means cutting back on other items to pay their coffee bill.

This blurb about Starbucks originated from observing the line out the door at my local Starbucks this morning. Gas has recently peeked in price and may go higher in the coming months. Many of the experts want to claim that consumers won’t cut back, they will, and they have. The question that any intelligent investor needs to as; Is where will consumers cut back? As I mentioned some time ago in The Real Walmart Story, consumers are cutting back from their beloved Walmart and shopping at dollar general to save a few dollars. They do not seem to be cutting back from Starbucks and this could be due to a multitude of reasons. One may be that Americans are cutting back in many aspect of their lives and have been for some time (we are still in the midst of a recession), and consumers want to treat themselves. The easiest and cheapest daily way to treat oneself is in the form of that Venti coffee from Starbucks. Even in the worst economic times Americans will treat themselves because we are spoiled and love spoiling ourselves.

When talking Starbucks nowadays one cannot forget to mention their recent movement to take market share from Green Mountain. What investors should not forget is that Starbucks bread and butter is selling coffee at their coffee shops. In the past few years their coffee has been available in stores and in K cups, but still at the end of the day they make the most of their revenues from their Starbucks coffee shops. Until their coffee machine becomes a leg on which they company stands on, one should not be overly concerned with that aspect of the company. At the end of the day Starbucks is Americans’ coffee shop and will continued to have a line out the door, even with rising fuel prices.

“Starbucks represents something more than a cup of coffee.” – Howard Schultz

Photo by Cherrysweetdeal

With all the wonderful news in the U.S. and abroad one could expect me to eat my previously bearish sentiments. Today I thought long and hard about eating my previous sentiments and adding some whip cream and cherry to the bearish sundae. Then as I was scanning my watch list, I came across CAT.

Over the past year and over the past few months in particular CAT has had quite a run. Over the past week we saw a deep sell off in equities followed by a complete reversal and a push higher. Where was CAT in all of this? The barometer of global growth has been hanging in the background. This does not seem to add up and lends me to suggest the future worry of financial markets: shrinking of global growth. We know that Europe’s growth will likely lack or in Greece’s case contract as we look into the future; That is all backed into the cake. What strikes renewed fear in my heart is the global growth story. One that suggests that those around the globe are about to hop on the recessionary bandwagon. The one pioneered by the U.S. in 2008 and revisited recently by the European Union.

As we excel higher on renewed optimism of the better than worse data out of the United States, one must remember that in the new day in age we are linked to those around the globe. The inter connectivity that encompasses the world today will hurt your portfolio as global growth goes. We may see a possible weakening of the BRIC and China in the coming months.  With a global slowdown the U.S. will likely follow, and that is what Goldman’s suggests with its cut in GDP estimates this morning from 2.0% to 1.8%.