As February draws to a close, take a look at the last three months shown below.

Things have seemed substantially better since December.  Everything from jobs to housing…. Wait was that about housing?

Supply has been declining, but prices have not been improving.  This suggests either a decrease in demand or a real underlying issue (housing has not bottomed).

Remember last year when we were all tricked into everything being better?  Well it seems the trickster has just changed its name from housing to jobs. Below is the S&P from last year.  Investors seem to have forgotten the market can go down.  Below shows that the market can decline and do so very rapidly.

Both Lowe’s and Home Depot report a good quarter supporting the story of housing recovery. The true reason that the winter quarter was good for these companies was renovations. Americans have quit moving out of their homes and instead have been upgrading aggressively. The previous statement does not suggest a housing recovery, but instead a fear of Americans getting back into the housing market. Gary Balter a Credit Suisse analyst states: “We encourage investors to look past the near term and think about double-digit margins for all when housing recovers.” Not only is he wrong, he is dead wrong.  My Anything But Housingarticle brought attention to the massive revisions downward of existing home sales, which don’t bode well for the housing recovery. If homes aren’t moving, then the good numbers of Lowe’s and Home Depot are merely suggesting mom and pop upgrading their kitchen or bath.

During the end of last week housing once again came into focus.  The housing data were not as glorious as the bulls had expected.  The price of homes was a key data point, and was not positive for the housing story.  With home prices at the lowest they have been in 10 years the housing recovery lacks a key component.  With the endless depreciation of the real estate market, investors and consumers alike must ask; Why would I buy a house if it will continually to loose value?

Oil has been just up, up, and away in the recent weeks.  With major concerns of Iran and the possible threatening of supply, oil traders are worried and running up the prices.  The indices are still threatening the bear by attempting to break through the resistance levels.  With such great performance from the restaurants over the past few months, one should wonder: Will they be the leg that drags us down?  Take a look at Buffalo Wild Wings and Chipotle.

Go out to dinner.  Go to your local park.  Go to any suburb in America. What do all these places have in common?  They have young children playing on the iPad.  That is right. Those of you who don’t have children may have missed the trend.  The new toy of choice has a huge price tag and it isn’t matchbox cars.  Many parents build their lives around their children; that also remains true when dealing with their purchasing habits.  The iPad is not just for business or Facetiming your family.  The iPad has many uses, and as announced recently will have its future place on college campuses.  The existence of the world of apps with many children oriented games have truly captured the spirit of the youth.

That being said, now my concerns must be raised.  What has got me nervous is the fact that neither the failure of a dividend or the lack of a stock split.  My fears find merit in the recent faltering of Apple.  Steve Jobs was meticulous in standard and the preciseness of his product and its creation. This allowed him to revolutionize Apple.  Now that Apple has become the giant that it is, we need to see Tim Cook revolutionize with the times.  As mentioned earlier, the iPad has a huge pull with children and the youth.  Apple may have realized this to a certain extent, though they fail to revolutionize the style or amenities of the iPad.  Wouldn’t it revolutionize the tablet market if they changed the size or made the product waterproof?

As a bull on Apple, my only fear is not that they fail to keep up with the times, but rather fail to stay ahead of the trend.  Steve Jobs made his name by creating the trend,  if Tim Cook doesn’t do the same in the coming years, we will be speaking of Apple as we speak of Research In Motion today. If you support the bull theory on Apple, remember what made Apple a giant (creating new markets, the smartphone and tablet) and make sure that they still are actively doing what makes them great.

Steve Jobs was set in his ways, and by being so he made Apple an economic force to be reckoned with.  Though as anyone who has studied the history of the American icon Henry Ford, he was similarly set in his ways, and this led to the near end of the great motor company.  Ford motor company was eventually saved by Henry’s heir, when the company eventually stepped outside its comfort zone.  Tim Cook must show the world that he is not only capable of leading Apple down new avenues, but that he can succeed in doing so.
Many die hard apple supporters may think the above analogy has no merit to it.  If Apple was to reorient its strategies, thus changing the size of the iPad, or to implement another device some other company will capture that market.


“You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you get it built, they’ll want something new.” – Steve Jobs