Young Gun

What is Sunday Funday?

Capital Overlook strives to assist investors by taking a different perspective to the daily stream of news coming out of the financial sphere. Starting this Sunday and continuing forward here at Capital Overlook we will be donating this one day out of the week to looking at a specific stock. This stock will change on a weekly basis. The goal is to cover a company a lot of investors are not familiar with and something oriented with weekend fun. Hopefully this weekend read will give you an insightful look at a company you aren’t familiar with and will help you profit from this new-found information. Sunday Funday takes the fun theme of the weekend and combines it with stock picking, to give you a competitive edge.

Photo by quinn.anya

 

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A Change In The Tech Guard

Just like at the beginning of the year, when everyone was convinced the market can’t go down, that seems to be the recent interpretation of technology stocks. Don’t get me wrong, I am a big bull on the tech space. Social media has legs to run and it is going to make me a lot of money in the process. So to sit here and say that the tech hype is dead and gone is ignorant. What I will stand behind my podium and preach is that there may be a changing of the guard. As of late people seem to be a little more leery of Apple, Yelp, Zynga, Google and so on. While at the same time things like Renn, Sify (Redf intraday on Friday), and LinkedIn have been doing well and/ or holding up fine. What may be happening is a movement away from the tech leaders of early 2012 into the new tech leaders of the late 2012. Keep an eye on this as the next few weeks play out. I may be trying to call thisone to early and things like Apple, Yelp, etc. may just be cooling off before they are hot once again. I am going to keep an eye on Apple earnings to help me gauge this movement, so we will revisit it again after the 24th.

Shout out to Fifty2weekhi in his article Don’t Overstay The Flagging Welcome for bringing this up in his technical analysis.

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Time To Sing My Own Praises On Zynga and VXX

Over the past few months I have attempted to contribute adequately to the investment community via my blog here on Capital Overlook. Looking back at some of my calls, I can gladly give myself a pat on the back.

My goal daily is to be more right then wrong. As easy as that sounds, it is far from a nice stroll down the park. Two calls of mine I can gladly look back upon and smile. A majority of my calls are more of a long term view on the macro economy and only time will tell. Below are the links to my articles from earlier this year.

VXX: They Took Fear Out Back And Shot It 3/21
I suggested at this point to avoid the VXX until we see a hard pressed reversal that would give the VXX some real legs to run. We haven’t seen that and if you avoided this fund you would have made some money elsewhere.

Zynga: Zynga Scares Me 3/15
In the above article I suggested that the shares that were coming to market would decrease the price of the stock. I was right and as I said “Why buy at $13 when you can by at $9.” Don’t get my wrong I think social media is hot, but Zynga wanted to go down and I am not touching it until it shows some good upward momentum.

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Where Is The Market Going? And Is This Even The Right Question To Ask?

We all wonder, day in and day out, where is the market going? This is the million dollar question that can land you, me, and the rest of the family a much richer and luxurious lifestyle. The quick answer to this is the market looks to trade sideways for quite sometime, until the global economics concerns are resolved. But maybe questioning the market is not the appropriate question to ask. Maybe this is the question that is costing us the money we think we could gain by asking the question. Maybe the more appropriate question is: Which stocks will be higher by the end of 2012? The saying goes, miss the forest for the trees, but the fact of the matter is that when it comes to investing, the trees make us rich and we could care less if the forest went up in flames.

So as the market dynamics have changed, so should your investing strategy. It is likely that you invest in the best of breed in many sectors. The reality of the situation is that the leaders are changing, and new ones will emerge (I am currently in the process of evaluating that). Broad markets moves are cashed out for the moment, with the renewed global economic concerns, and if these worries come continue to rise, the market will trade down. So take some time over the weekend and realize what the trends of the future are. Is social media the leader of 2012, or will it fall off, are the automakers set to make record profits, or will the IPO babies of the year give us a once and a lifetime return? Rather then questioning where the market is headed, one should question which are the stocks that will trend higher over the rest of the year?

Please feel free to comment some of the companies that you think will take 2012 by storm. The best investing occurs when ideas are shared.

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Apple, You Have Grown So Much Without Your Father

With all the talk yesterday morning on CNBC (thankfully without Cramer) about Warren Buffett and his illness. It reminds me of a time when Steve Jobs was headlining the news and investor concerns about Apple ran rampant. We all know that Steve Jobs was an innovator, one of a kind, a revolutionary. The same can be said about Warren Buffett in his own right, for he has impacted the investing world tremendously. This lends me to wonder, after a great company like Apple or Berkshire Hathaway looses its icon, how should the share price react?

We have seen a tremendous run as of late in Apple. Is the huge Apple run warranted? I have been listening to the arguments for months about valuation and potential in the stock. I see the bull case, but I wonder about the bear case. When a company loses its visionary, should it be on a tear? Does the concern about the unknown, the losing of an icon, relate to lower value when the visionary is alive, to only rally after his or her loss? This is obvious through the massive move in the Apple equity. Though people that talk of Berkshire Hathaway claim that the company would never be the same without Buffett. This leaves me wondering, how important is an icon? To be honest I don’t know the answer. I usually have some devious conclusion that gives me an edge on the market, but in this case I would have expected the exact opposite reaction of the Apple stock with the loss of its father. Only time will give us the answer we seek. In the coming year one should watch the equity to see if the initial enthusiasm was overstated, because CEO’s can be replaced, visionaries cannot.
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